London pre-open: Stocks seen down after China data

(Sharecast News) - London stocks were set to nudge lower at the open on Tuesday following Chinese trade data and a downbeat Asian session. The FTSE 100 was called to open seven points lower at 7,410.

Danske Bank said the October trade data out of China was "a mixed bag".

"Imports recovered more than expected (+3.0% y/y, consensus -4.8%), which could suggest that the recent policy easing is supporting domestic demand," it said.

"But in contrast, exports fell more sharply than anticipated (-6.4% y/y, consensus -3.3%), as tightening financial conditions are restricting demand elsewhere. Overall trade balance weakened, with surplus declining to USD56.5 billion (from USD77.7)."

Investors will also be mulling the latest policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which hiked interest rates by 25 basis points to a 12-year high of 4.35%. This followed four consecutive holds.

On home shores, figures released earlier by the British Retail Consortium and KPMG showed that retail sales growth slowed to an annual rate of 2.5% in October, as milder weather and deal-hunting delayed seasonal spending.

The BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor revealed that growth fell from 2.7% in September, and 4.1% in August. This was well below the three-month average of +3.1% and the 12-month average of +4.2%.

The three-month average growth in food sales rose to 7.9%, from 7.4% the month before, while non-food sales were down 1%, from -1.2% the month before.

"Retail sales growth slowed as high mortgage and rental costs further shook consumer confidence," said BRC's chief executive Helen Dickinson.

"Many households are also delaying their Christmas spending in the hopes they can grab a bargain in the upcoming Black Friday sales. The cost-of-living squeeze meant more was spent on lower-price indulgences, such as beauty products - the so-called 'Lipstick Effect'. Meanwhile, the arrival of some colder weather helped to boost fashion sales, particularly for outdoor wear."

Elsewhere, data from Halifax showed that house prices rose in October after six consecutive monthly falls amid constrained supply, but demand remains weak overall.

House prices ticked up 1.1% on the month following a 0.3% fall in September.

On the year, prices were down 3.2% in October following a 4.5% decline the month before. The average price of a home stood at £281,974.

Kim Kinnaird, director, Halifax Mortgages, said: "Prospective sellers appear to be taking a cautious attitude, leading to a low supply of homes for sale. This is likely to have strengthened prices in the short-term, rather than prices being driven by buyer demand, which remains weak overall.

"While many people will have seen their income grow through wage rises, higher interest rates and wider affordability pressures continue to be challenges for buyers.

"Across the medium-term, with financial markets not anticipating a decline in the Bank of England's Base Rate soon, we expect house prices to fall further overall - with a return to growth from 2025.

"The current picture should continue to be seen in the context of the longer-term house price trend as, on average, prices remain around £40,000 above pre-pandemic levels."

In corporate news, food, ingredients and retail conglomerate Associated British Foods is returning another £500m to shareholders as it reported double-digit growth on both the top and bottom lines in the last financial year.

The Primark owner also proposed a final dividend of 33.1p per share and a special dividend of 12.7p, taking the full-year payout to 60p - up 37% year-on-year. Looking ahead, the company said that inflationary pressures have eased and there is "less volatility than there was 12 months ago".

Direct Line, Beazley, Watches of Switzerland and Persimmon were among the names updating on Tuesday.