London open: FTSE nudges up; NatWest rallies on guidance upgrade

(Sharecast News) - London stocks nudged higher in early trade on Friday following a record close in the previous session, while NatWest rallied after a guidance upgrade. At 0845 BST, The FTSE 100 was up just 0.1% at 9,587.08, as investors mulled the latest UK retail sales figures and looked ahead to a key US inflation reading.

Data released earlier by the Office for National Statistics showed that retail sales jumped in the last quarter, as the fine weather boosted demand for summer clothing.

The quantity of goods bought was estimated to have risen 0.9% in the three months to September, the highest level since summer 2022.

Sales volumes rose by 0.5% in September, following an upwardly-revised 0.6% increase in August.

Analysts had been expecting a 0.2% dip last month.

ONS senior statistician Hannah Finselbach said: "Retail sales rose quite strongly in the latest quarter and were at their highest level since summer 2022. Although food stores saw very little growth, good weather in July and August boosted sales of clothing, while online retailing also did well.

"Retail sales also grew over the month of September, with tech stores seeing a notable rise in sales, while online jewellers reported strong demand for gold."

Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "The FTSE 100 opened broadly flat this morning, after hitting record highs yesterday. The muted start to Friday's trading comes despite UK Retail Sales landing much better than expected, up 0.5% month-on-month, and marking the fourth month in a row of strong sales. Markets had been predicting a 0.2% decline, but rising real wages and a steadying house market are helping to drive an uplift in overall consumer spending.

"US stock futures edged higher this morning as investors brace for a crucial inflation report, which could shape the outlook for the economy and interest rates. The report, delayed by the ongoing US government shutdown, is expected to show that consumer prices have worsened in September for the second straight month, as Trump's tariffs have lifted the cost of some groceries and other goods."

The US CPI data for September is due at 1330 BST.

In equity markets, NatWest shares jumped after the banking group raised its income and returns guidance for 2025 following a strong performance in the third quarter, helped by "healthy levels of customer activity".

The lender said it now expects income excluding notable items to be around £16.3bn this year, up from earlier projections of at least £16.0bn, and to achieve a return on tangible equity of greater than 18.0%, up from 16.5%.

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at HL, said: "NatWest delivered a strong set of results, comfortably beating expectations with profits about 10% ahead of consensus. The good news was broad-based: revenues were higher, costs were lower, and even loan impairments came in better than feared.

"Net interest margins - a key measure of how much banks earn on lending - held up well, and management has enough confidence to nudge full-year guidance higher once more. Even so, that upgrade still feels a touch cautious given the margin strength, leaving room for more upside if trends continue.

"This is another reminder that UK-focused banks are quietly performing better than many give them credit for. Lloyds showed similar resilience recently, though its motor finance charge muddied the picture. Strip out the noise, and both lenders are proving they fully deserve their improving valuations. For investors, these results reinforce the idea that the domestic banking story still has more room to run."

Elsewhere, B&Q and Castorama owner Kingfisher rose after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock to 'outperform' from 'sector perform' and lifted the price target to 350p from 320p.

"Our store potential analysis suggests further space growth opportunities for KGF in the UK and Poland, with likely further strong trade and ecom growth," it said.

"We are positive on its gross margin outlook, while Poland recovery should offset a tough French market. 12x CY26e price-to-earnings looks undemanding given KGF's strong EPS growth and cash returns."

Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 9,587.08 0.09% FTSE 250 (MCX) 22,392.14 0.14% techMARK (TASX) 5,577.09 -0.05%

FTSE 100 - Risers

NATWEST GROUP (NWG) 567.00p 3.92% London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) 9,594.00p 2.65% Kingfisher (KGF) 317.90p 2.19% Relx plc (REL) 3,502.00p 1.57% Smurfit Westrock (DI) (SWR) 3,230.00p 1.29% Burberry Group (BRBY) 1,290.00p 1.14% Entain (ENT) 819.80p 1.04% Next (NXT) 13,290.00p 1.03% Diploma (DPLM) 5,610.00p 0.99% Convatec Group (CTEC) 248.60p 0.89%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

GSK (GSK) 1,614.50p -1.94% Fresnillo (FRES) 2,154.00p -1.64% Barclays (BARC) 382.45p -1.10% Phoenix Group Holdings (PHNX) 662.00p -0.82% Prudential (PRU) 1,012.50p -0.78% Aviva (AV.) 661.20p -0.69% Legal & General Group (LGEN) 236.90p -0.63% Rentokil Initial (RTO) 438.60p -0.59% SSE (SSE) 1,899.00p -0.50% Unilever (ULVR) 4,663.00p -0.47%

FTSE 250 - Risers

CMC Markets (CMCX) 225.00p 3.69% Edinburgh Worldwide Inv Trust (EWI) 207.50p 3.23% WH Smith (SMWH) 696.00p 3.11% Trustpilot Group (TRST) 212.00p 2.42% W.A.G Payment Solutions (EWG) 95.20p 2.15% Travis Perkins (TPK) 672.00p 2.05% Rank Group (RNK) 130.20p 2.04% NB Private Equity Partners Ltd. (NBPE) 1,526.00p 1.87% Bakkavor Group (BAKK) 225.00p 1.81% Morgan Advanced Materials (MGAM) 207.50p 1.72%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Hochschild Mining (HOC) 344.00p -2.77% SSP Group (SSPG) 157.60p -2.23% Pinewood Technologies Group (PINE) 375.00p -2.22% JTC (JTC) 1,342.00p -1.76% Chemring Group (CHG) 561.00p -1.41% Close Brothers Group (CBG) 429.40p -1.15% Anglo-Eastern Plantations (AEP) 1,305.00p -1.14% Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) 252.50p -0.98% Abrdn (ABDN) 202.00p -0.88% The European Smaller Companies Trust (ESCT) 209.50p -0.71%