Trainline shares slide on caution over sales growth, TfL plans

(Sharecast News) - Shares in Trainline fell sharply on Wednesday after the online rail ticketing platform said net ticket sales growth would be lower this financial year as it faced headwinds from economic uncertainty hitting travel and the expansion of London's contactless travel zone. Trainline now expects sales growth of 6% - 9% for fiscal 2026 compared with a 12% rise to £5.9bn in the year to February 28. The company forecast earnings to grow in the same range and also expects slower revenue growth of between 0% and 3%.

Shares in company were down as much as 8% in London trade.

Trainline is bracing itself for more competition in the UK as the government prepares its own operator called Great British Railways amid plans to simplify the country's overcomplicated and expensive ticketing system to make it more consumer friendly with its own online offering.

This has seen Trainline shares plummet by over a third so far this year, amid threats to its dominant market position. The company said it was "taking an increasingly assertive stance with the government to deliver on its commitment to deliver a fair, open and competitive future retail market".

Transport for London, which runs the capital's train and bus network, began an expansion of the zone in February to include 47 commuter stations in the south-east, such as Sevenoaks and Bletchley, meaning passengers will not require separate tickets.

UK sales in 2024/25 grew 13% to £3.9bn, while international ticket sales increased 4% to £1.1bn, driven by a strong performance in Spain. Adjusted core earnings rose 30% to £159m, while operating profit surged by 54% to £86m.

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said: "The messages coming over the PA system to shareholders alongside full year results have, in the manner of a train manager revealing bad news on a protracted train journey, generated further gloom.

"Given the strength of Trainline's brand, it may be able to stave off some of the impacts from a commission-free, state-backed rival, but what may really hurt is the reduction in complexity of the whole ticketing system in UK rail. If delivered, this would reduce one of Trainline's key appeals to travellers - which is helping them navigate complexity and get the best ticket prices available."

Reporting by Frank Prenesti for Sharecast.com