Thursday preview: UK GDP, US retail sales take the spotlight

(Sharecast News) - Economic data from home and abroad will be the theme of the day on Thursday, with a flurry of leading indicators on tap for investors to digest. First up is the UK trade balance, due at 0700 BST, which is expected to show that the deficit shrank to £19.4bn in March from £20.8bn the month before.

Also due out before London markets open will be the first look at UK GDP estimates for the first quarter of 2025. The UK economy is expected to have grown by 0.6% over the first three months of the year, picking up from a 0.1% quarterly expansion in the fourth quarter.

"GDP data from the first quarter of this year is expected to receive a boost from a rush to produce goods to front run US tariffs," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.

Also due for release will be UK industrial and manufacturing production figures for March, which are both expected to show a 0.5% decline after growing the previous month.

Over in the eurozone, first-quarter employment figures will be released at 1000 BST, along with industrial production estimates for March. The second estimate of first-quarter eurozone GDP will be published, two weeks after Eurostat's preliminary estimates showed that year-on-year economic activity growth picked up to 0.4% from 0.2% previously.

Stateside, there will also be a barrage of key data points that could move markets, including US jobless claims, the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing indices and industrial production figures.

However, the focus will likely be on US retail sales, due out at 1330 BST, which are expected to have stalled in April after growing 1.5% the month before. April's US producer price index, tipped to have slowed to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.7%, will also be closely watched as investors continue monitor the impact of America's fluctuating trade policies on input prices.

Thursday 15 May

INTERIMS

Auction Technology Group , Grainger, Nexus Infrastructure

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Miton UK Microcap Trust

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Carr's Group, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (DI)

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

BlackRock Latin American Inv Trust, M Winkworth

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

BP, GCP Asset Backed Income Fund Limited, Greencoat Renewables (CDI), GSK, Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust , Pershing Square Holdings Ltd NPV, Pershing Square Holdings Ltd NPV (USD), Picton Property Income Ltd, The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited, Unilever

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Business Inventories (US) (15:00)

Capacity Utilisation (US) (14:15)

Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)

GDP (Preliminary) (EU) (10:00)

Industrial Production (EU) (10:00)

Industrial Production (US) (14:15)

Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

Producer Price Index (US) (13:30)

Retail Sales (US) (13:30)

Retail Sales Less Autos (US) (13:30)

Wholesale Price Index (GER) (07:00)

GMS

Smithson Investment Trust

FINALS

3i Group, National Grid, Ondine Biomedical Inc. NPV (CDI), Premier Foods, United Utilities Group

ANNUAL REPORT

Ondine Biomedical Inc. NPV (CDI)

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Admiral Group

AGMS

Alpha Group International, Bridgepoint Group (Reg S) , Capricorn Energy, Central Asia Metals, Ceres Power Holdings, Computacenter, Eurocell , Funding Circle Holdings , Global Opportunities Trust, Greencoat Renewables (CDI), Greencoat Renewables (CDI), Hammerson, Hammerson, Helios Towers , Helios Towers , Hiscox Limited (DI), Inchcape, Kromek Group, Literacy Capital , Lloyds Banking Group, M&C Saatchi, Michelmersh Brick Holdings, Next, Regional REIT Limited NPV, Resolute Mining Limited NPV (DI), Secure Trust Bank, Spirent Communications, Unite Group

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Aviva

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Balance of trade (07:00)

GDP (Preliminary) (07:00)

Gross Domestic Product (07:00)

Index of Services (07:00)

Industrial Production (07:00)

Manufacturing Production (07:00)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Athelney Trust, Capital Limited (DI), Grafton Group Ut (CDI), InterContinental Hotels Group, Investec Investment Trust 5% Cumulative Preference Stock 1, Morgan Sindall Group

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Admiral Group, Balfour Beatty, BlackRock Smaller Companies Trust, Epwin Group, Essentra, Fevertree Drinks, Hvivo, Irish Continental Group Units (Comp) (CDI), Lancashire Holdings Limited, Macfarlane Group, Niox Group, Pagegroup, Spectris, Tesco, The Pebble Group

Q1

Lion Finance Group