Thursday preview: Sharp UK GDP slowdown expected in Q2

(Sharecast News) - UK economic data is set to steal the limelight on Thursday morning, with investors awaiting their first look at preliminary GDP figures for the second quarter and industrial production numbers for June. The Office for National Statistics is expected to report the GDP data at 0700 BST, with analysts widely forecasting just a 0.1% economic expansion over the three months between April and June, slowing from 0.7% in the first quarter.

The closely following year-on-year rate is also expected to ease to just 1.0% from 1.3%, and down from the 1.5% growth registered in the fourth quarter of 2024 - the strongest annual increase in three years.

Analyst Michael Hewson from MCH Market Insights said that the Q2 numbers "are likely to paint a very different picture" from the start of the year, as the frontloading of shipments ahead of the launch of US trade tariffs in April sparked a surge in UK exports.

"This effect is likely to reverse in Q2 with the high probability that we could see the economy contract. While the UK government was keen to claim the credit for a strong Q1, it seems highly doubtful that a poor set of numbers this week will see them adopt a similar attitude in Q2," Hewson said.

Meanwhile, the industrial production report from the ONS will also be released at 0700 BST, and is expected to show that output increased by just 0.2% after dropping by 0.9% in May - the steepest monthly decline since April 2024. Production has been steadily dropping back after growing by 1.7% in February.

Overseas, we'll get to see industrial production figures from the eurozone due out at 1000 BST, and initial jobless claims and the producer price index from the US at 1330 BST.

Thursday will be a relatively quiet day for corporate updates, with interim results from Antofagasta and Savills, and full-year figures from ITM Power and Rank Group the only major releases of the day.

Also of note, a number of blue chips will be trading ex-dividend from Thursday, including BP, Chemring, Domino's Pizza Group, Fresnillo, GSK, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Hiscox, Lancashire, LSEG, Melrose, Pearson, Rentokil Initial, Rio Tinto and Smurfit Westrock and Unilever.

INTERIMS

Amaroq Ltd. Npv (DI), Antofagasta, CAB Payments Holdings, Capital Limited (DI), Savills, Telecom Egypt SAE GDS (Regs)

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Treatt

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE

4Imprint Group, Abrdn , Aptitude Software Group , Bellevue Healthcare Trust (Red), Blackrock Throgmorton Trust, Chemring Group, Conduit Holdings Limited Com Shs (DI), Coventry 12 1/8% Perm Int Bearing Shs #1000, Domino's Pizza Group, Elementis, Fresnillo, Goldplat, Haleon , Harbour Energy , Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Hiscox Limited (DI), IMI, International Public Partnerships Ltd., Just Group, Keller Group, Lancashire Holdings Limited, London Stock Exchange Group, Melrose Industries, Pearson, Reach, Rentokil Initial, Rio Tinto, Rotork, Smurfit Westrock (DI), Vesuvius

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

BlackRock American Income Trust, BP, Greencoat Renewables (CDI), GSK, ICG Enterprise Trust, NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited Red, Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust , Pershing Square Holdings Ltd NPV, Pershing Square Holdings Ltd NPV (USD), TBC Bank Group, The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited, Unilever

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)

Industrial Production (EU) (10:00)

Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

Producer Price Index (US) (13:30)

Q2

Amaroq Ltd. Npv (DI), Telecom Egypt SAE GDS (Regs)

GMS

Amala Foods NPV, CPP Group

FINALS

ITM Power, MHA, Rank Group

EGMS

Ethernity Networks Ltd

AGMS

Calnex Solutions , Great Western Mining Corporation (CDI), Harvest Minerals Limited (DI), Keras Resources , Third Point Investors Limited NPV $, TwentyFour Select Monthly Income Fund Limited

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Balance of Trade (07:00)

Gross Domestic Product (07:00)

Index of Services (07:00)

Industrial Production (07:00)

RICS Housing Market Survey (00:01)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Marks Electrical Group

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Baillie Gifford UK Growth Trust, Investec