FTSE 100 breaks 10,000 - the week ahead

Stocks at all-time highs

Many investors are already feeling chipper. Late last week, the FTSE 100 climbed above 10,000 points for the first time in its 42-year history. It has retreated slightly since then, but the message is clear: mature sectors such as banking, mining and defence are back in fashion.

The US stock market is also on a roll. The S&P 500 rose by 18% last year and posted 39 record closing highs, despite tariff turmoil, inflation fears, and a lengthy government shutdown. This was its third consecutive year of double-digit gains.

Returns were turbocharged by mega-caps and excitement around artificial intelligence. However, the rally appeared to broaden out slightly, with smaller and mid-sized companies also achieving some share price growth.

Elsewhere, Japanese stocks logged their highest ever year-end close on 30 December and the Stoxx Europe 600 hit an all-time high this morning.

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All eyes on Venezuela

We are now in a period of predictions. Speculation is rampant on everything from the future of AI to England’s chances of winning the World Cup (8%, according to PwC).

One thing that few of us predicted, however, was President Trump’s military strike on Venezuela over the weekend. On Saturday, the US captured the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife on suspected narcoterrorism. It has since laid out a series of demands it expects the country to meet. This marks Washington’s most direct intervention in Latin America since the invasion of Panama 37 years ago.

It has caused ripples in the market. Venezuela is home to some of the world’s largest oil reserves, and brent crude - the international oil benchmark - fell this morning. This is due to fears that America’s actions will increase oil exports from the country at a time when analysts are fearful of a glut.

In contrast, gold - which enjoyed a historic rally in 2025 - is up this morning because of the heightened geopolitical risk.

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Busy week of updates

Venezuela is likely to hog the headlines this week, but there are plenty of economic updates to look out for too.

On Friday, the US will publish its December jobs report. The strength of the labour market could have a direct bearing on interest rates in 2026 - a weaker jobs market could mean more cuts. News of who will succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair is also expected this month.

Meanwhile, countries around the world are preparing to publish data on how manufacturers and service sectors are faring. We can also expect a flurry of retail sales data, insights into consumer confidence, and mortgage lending figures.

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Company news

Corporate results are thin on the ground this week - reporting season tends to pick up in February. However, keep an eye out for trading updates from retailers such as Next, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s. These statements tend to be short but provide a useful insight into Christmas trading.

Investors may also be eyeing up fresh opportunities. It is expected to be a busy year for IPOs, with SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic - three of the world’s most valuable private tech firms - all reportedly preparing to float1. Nothing is certain, however. 2025 was also meant to be busy with listings, before things were derailed by a global trade war.

In fact, investors might be experiencing a general sense of déjà vu. As we step into 2026, many of the big concerns - such as a global tech bubble and the direction of inflation - are the same as last year. Things could rapidly become less familiar, however.

Source:

¹FT, 01.01.2026

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