US pre-open: Futures cautiously higher ahead of NFP report

(Sharecast News) - Wall Street futures were pointing to a positive open ahead of the bell on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' all-important non-farm jobs report. As of 1230 GMT, Dow Jones futures were up 0.10%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures had the indices opening 0.13% and 0.20% firmer, respectively.

The Dow closed 52.27 points higher on Tuesday as investors digested a raft of corporate earnings and economic data.

Wednesday's primary focus will undoubtedly be the Bureau of Labor Statistics' delayed January non-farm payrolls report at 1330 GMT, with economists expecting the jobs report to show little to no growth last month. Consensus estimates call for a gain of 55,000, compared to a December increase of 50,000. Traders will also be on the lookout for a number of revisions from the BLS, which may shed further light on the state of the US economy.

Rostro's Joshua Mahony said: "Today looks to be centred around the latest jobs report out of the US, with traders having to weigh up whether a deterioration in the jobs market would be enough to force the hand of Powell before he leaves in May. Whilst that remains the less likely outcome, markets are currently pricing a 40% chance that we see the Fed ease in either March or April. Notably, we have seen comments from Peter Navarro and Kevin Hassett in which both tried to dial down expectations for today's report. Navarro stated that payroll expectations should be lessened significantly owing to the deportations seen under Trump. Meanwhile, Hassett similarly noted that a slower population growth should result in less impressive jobs data going forward.

"Whilst Trump's deportation efforts will undoubtedly have an impact of the jobs market, the disruption in the AI space will likely further extend this trend of higher growth and rising unemployment. For markets, the declines seen in the US dollar highlights both a shifting narrative around a potential cut under Powell and the prospect of a dovish Warsh. Further weakness off the back of downbeat Challenger job cuts, JOLTS job openings, and ADP payrolls would undoubtedly push the Fed closer to a cut in the event of a weak inflation release on Friday."

Elsewhere on the macro front, mortgage applications fell 0.3% in the week ended 6 February, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, with applications to purchase a home dropped 2.4%, while applications to refinance a mortgage, which are more sensitive to week-to-week interest rate changes, increased by 1.1%.

In the corporate space, Shopify said total revenue rose 31% to $3.67bn in the three months ended 31 December, with the group now expecting first‑quarter revenues to come in ahead of market forecasts, supported by continued strong demand across its platform, while Kraft-Heinz posted better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings but provided disappointing guidance for FY26, including a planned $600m investment to revitalize growth.

Stil to come, McDonald's and T-Mobile were slated to report earnings before the open, while Cisco Systems was scheduled to post its latest quarterly figures after the close.

Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com