UBS downgrades Imperial Brands to 'neutral'

(Sharecast News) - UBS downgraded Imperial Brands on Wednesday to 'neutral' from 'buy' and cut the price target to 3,150p from 3,500p as it pointed to limited near-term catalysts and the fact it has outperformed its tobacco peers over the last four years. The bank said competition is stepping up in the tobacco sector, including Altria's price investment in US combustibles, and British American Tobacco in nicotine pouches.

"We believe this could see Imperial's priority market share decline circa 10 basis points (versus cumulative +50bps past 4yrs), and NGP revenues grow +8% (cons +14%) in FY26," it said. "Combined with short-term headwinds (e.g., US settlement payments), we now expect FY26 cFX tobacco & NGP sales growth of +2.0% (prev +2.2%) and group EBIT of +3.5% (prev +3.9%).

"As the group likely invests to stabilise share, we expect circa +3.5% per annum cFX EBIT growth to 2030."

UBS said that while this supports capital returns of about £2.8bn a year - with buybacks driving high single digit earnings per share growth - it believes some moderation in key operating metrics and limited NGP optionality makes a further re-rating unlikely.

The bank cut its FY27 EPS estimate by 2%. Its top pick is 'buy' rated British American Tobacco, where UBS expect NGP outperformance to drive an acceleration in group growth, and sees potential for further re-rating.

At 0945 BST, Imperial Brands shares were down 2.9% at 2,847p.