Tuesday preview: BP and Barclays results in focus

(Sharecast News) - Investors will get the latest policy announcement from the Bank of Japan on Tuesday, while on the UK corporate front, first-quarter numbers are due from Barclays and BP, preliminary results from Card Factory, and trading updates from Taylor Wimpey, Travis Perkins, WPP and Howden Joinery. As far as BP is concerned, UBS noted that consensus numbers are up 13% since the trading statement reflecting indications of 'exceptional' oil trading, while the bank is 18% above consensus on net income.

"The company has already indicated net debt (BP definition) of $25-27bn (UBSe $26bn) driven by a large working capital build of $4-7bn (UBSe $5.5bn)," it said. "This quarter will also be the first time the new CEO Meg O'Neill presents to the market."

UBS said the key indicators are priced in after the trading statement with some potential upside to trading profits.

"We think the market is likely to be looking for any early indications of strategy changes under new management."

Regarding the Bank of Japan's latest policy announcement, ING said markets are widely expecting it to stay on hold after local wires quoted comments from people familiar with the matter saying the BoJ would not hike in April.

"We understand that the Middle East situation is fluid and uncertain. But in our view, recent data suggest that energy shocks are having a more prolonged and much larger impact on inflation than on growth," ING said.

"This will be reflected in the BoJ's upcoming quarterly outlook report next week. We expect the inflation outlook to be revised sharply upward. Meanwhile, downward revision of growth should be limited.

"That said, this is a non-consensus call, but we still expect the BoJ to make a data-dependent decision on the hike. If the market is right about the BoJ skipping the hike in April, then the BoJ's communication should give a much stronger signal for a rate hike in June."