RBC Capital cuts Hilton Food price target, estimates after profit warning

(Sharecast News) - RBC Capital Markets slashed its price target on Hilton Food on Wednesday to 540p from 750p as the bank revised its mid-term estimates following the company's third-quarter trading update and profit warning a day earlier. Shares in Hilton Food tumbled on Tuesday as it downgraded its full-year profit guidance and struck a downbeat tone on the outlook for trading in 2026, citing operational disruption and subdued demand.

The company said it now expects adjusted pre-tax profit for the financial year ending 28 December of between £72m and £75m. This is below company-compiled consensus of £76.8m to £81m in September.

Following the "downbeat" Q3 statement, RBC said it was reducing its top-line growth estimates for the company to reflect its salmon production in Greece being delayed.

"Our lower growth forecasts also take into account a softer consumer backdrop in Europe, which we observe across other consumer staples companies and sub-sectors," it said. "Additionally, with seafood prices remaining elevated, we do not expect a rapid volume recovery and more limited support from premiumisation."

The bank said it does not expect volume growth to turn positive until FY27.

"Given these, we forecast group revenue growth of +7.6%/+1.0%/+2.0% on a constant currency basis over FY25/FY26/FY27.

"We also bring down our EBIT margin estimates over the next three years, reflecting incremental costs of managing the European seafood business and a less positive mix."

RBC said its FY25 adjusted pre-tax profit estimate falls slightly to £72m, the bottom-end of the lowered guided range of £72-75mn.

"We now expect no meaningful PBT growth in FY26, in line with guidance."

The bank maintained its 'sector perform' rating on the stock.