Friday preview: UK retail sales, NatWest results eyed

(Sharecast News) - UK retail sales figures for September will be a highlight on the UK macro calendar on Friday, with the latest quarterly results from NatWest also due. Michael Hewson at MCH Market Insights said: "Assuming you can believe anything the ONS publishes the UK consumer has managed to see a rebound in spending over the last three months after a sharp slump in April and May, in the wake of a sharp rise in bills as well as taxes at the start of the new tax year.

"The last three months of June, July and August have seen gains of 0.4%, 0.5% and 0.5% respectively, assuming no further adjustments. The August numbers were driven largely by sales of clothing as well as food as decent weather helped a modest feel-good factor. Clothing sales were also probably driven by back-to-school spending, however with consumer confidence in September showing a sharp fall it seems likely that the end of Q3 could well see a sharp slowdown."

On the corporate front, investors will watch out for third-quarter results from NatWest, after Barclays and Lloyds reported earlier in the week.

Bloomberg consensus is for pre-tax operating profit of £1.82bn and net income of £1.23bn. Customer deposits are seen at £439.56bn and the Common equity Tier 1 ratio is estimated at 13.8%.

In Europe, quarterly results are due from Sanofi, Safran, Holcim, Eni and Norsk Hydro, among others.

As far as French aerospace and defence firm Safran is concerned, UBS said most investors it speaks to agree with its view that management is likely to upgrade guidance at the Q3 results.

The bank said: "However, given concerns around the potential timing of the cycle turning there is a range of views here, which increases the risk of volatility around results, in our view. Key thoughts into results:

"1) Guidance: Retirements remain very low and other lead indicators lead us to believe that the aftermarket environment remains strong. Management guidance for Spare parts and Services growth of mid to high teens appears to assume a moderation in demand in H2 relative to H1, which we believe now looks conservative.

"We expect guidance for Spare parts (and possibly Services as well) to be increased to high teens to low twenties. We model €5.2bn EBIT against guidance of €5.0-5.1bn despite adverse currency moves. From our conversations with investors, we believe these expectations are consensual, although there is a wide range of views.

"2) Propulsion margins: Whilst Safran does not report margins in Q3, management may comment on profitability given elevated spare engine deliveries, as well as strong pricing. We model 23.3% margins for the FY, roughly in line with H1 margins and slightly ahead of prior management commentary suggesting a 250bps increase on the 20.6% delivered in 2024.

"3) Other divisions: We are broadly in line with consensus, we believe."

In the US, consumer goods group Procter & Gamble will release first-quarter numbers.

Friday October 24

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QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

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INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Consumer Price Index (US) (13:30)

U. of Michigan Confidence (US) (15:00)

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AGMS

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UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

GFK Consumer Confidence (00:01)

Retail Sales (07:00)

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