Berenberg lowers Antofagasta to 'hold', sees long-term upside

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg downgraded copper miner Antofagasta from 'buy' to 'hold' on Thursday, but stated there was "more upside long term". Berenberg said it continues to like the Antofagasta equity story and reckons that its "quality growth profile" was "compelling and one of the best, if not the best, in the sector".

"We also recognise the quality of its assets, as well as the helpful gold by-product credits that we think can act as an offset against rising cost inflation from oil and sulphuric acid prices," said Berenberg,

However, with Antofagasta's shares touching 4,000p following the release of its first quarter operational results, Berenberg said it had considered its valuation and the trajectory of the company's earnings over the next 12 months, and expect more of a sideways share price direction, before seeing further upside from the second half of 2027 as its core growth projects begin to deliver and production increases.

The German bank said it sees copper volume growth of roughly 6% from 2026-2027, while it also expects volume growth of around 16% for the 2027-2028 period.

"As such, we think that the shares will really start to kick on further when the 2028 volume growth is closer to delivery," said Berenberg, which added Antofagasta shares were currently trading at 2.87x net asset value and 9.3x 2026 underlying earnings.

Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com