Tuesday preview: Long-awaited non-farm payrolls reports due

(Sharecast News) - Tuesday sees the long-awaited release of the US non-farm payrolls reports for October and November, along with full-year results from Hollywood Bowl, a full-year trading update from recruiter SThree and a trading update from IG Group. The payrolls reports, which were delayed due to the US government shutdown, are both due at 1330 GMT.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said the overall NFP figure for October is expected to be show a 10,000 decline.

However, it is expected to be influenced by a massive 130,000 drop in federal department workers.

"This is unlikely to have been caused by the federal government shutdown and instead was driven by federal government workers who took the deferred resignation option offered by DOGE earlier in the year," Brooks said.

"The market expects payrolls to 'bounce' back in November, and the median estimate of economists is for a 50k increase in payrolls. However, some analysts are expecting a much higher number and the range of economist estimates is broad, with 127k on the upside and -20k on the downside. This highlights how the government shutdown, combined with DOGE cuts impacting federal workers could distort this release."

In the UK, ahead of Thursday's policy announcement from the Bank of England, the latest labour market statistics will be released. In a research note last Friday, Daiwa Capital said it expected the UK data flow in the days leading up to the BoE announcement to reinforce the case for a rate cut.

"Starting with Tuesday's labour market data, we note that their previous release - which came after the MPC's last meeting - already called for easier policy," it said. "Private regular pay slowed to its weakest pace in almost four years in September (4.2%3M/Y) against the backdrop of a further pickup in joblessness, pushing the unemployment rate up to a near-five-year high (5.0%3M).

"While there have been some signals of stabilisation in the labour market more recently, surveys have remained broadly downbeat. Not least given the weakness of today's GDP release, the UK flash PMIs (also due Tuesday) will provide a signal as to whether firms continued to reduce headcount in December.

"But in any case, we expect the main labour market data, on balance, to remain consistent with further gradual loosening in the jobs market. And perhaps most notably, private sector pay should slow to below 4%3M/Y for the first time since the end of 2020, consistent with a further moderation in underlying price pressures ahead."

On the corporate front, Bloomberg consensus for Hollywood Bowl's full-year adjusted EBIDTA is £89.6m, with earnings per share of 22p expected.

Tuesday December 16

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Building Permits (US) (13:30)

Business Inventories (US) (15:00)

Capacity Utilisation (US) (14:15)

Housing Starts (US) (13:30)

Industrial Production (US) (14:15)

Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)

Retail Sales (US) (13:30)

Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)

ZEW Survey (EU) - Economic Sentiment (10:00)

ZEW Survey (GER) - Current Situation (10:00)

ZEW Survey (GER) - Economic Sentiment (10:00)

FINALS

Hollywood Bowl Group, WH Smith

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Softcat

EGMS

Air China Ltd.

AGMS

Shearwater Group

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

SThree, Time Finance

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Claimant Count Rate (07:00)

Unemployment Rate (07:00)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

International Paper Company (DI), Softcat, Volution Group