Crest Nicholson profits miss guidance but shares rally on signs of demand recovery

(Sharecast News) - Crest Nicholson posted full-year profit below guidance on Thursday amid a "subdued" housing market, as it warned of a "material uncertainty" related to its position as a going concern, but shares in the housebuilder rallied after it highlighted early signs of demand recovery. In the year to the end of October 2025, adjusted pre-tax profit rose 30.5% to £26.5m, versus consensus expectations of £28m, while revenue dipped 1.2% to £610.8m. Home completions fell 9.7% to 1,691.

The housebuilder said profitability was marginally below the lower end of guidance, reflecting weaker market conditions in the second half, although it did point to "strong progress" on inventory control.

Crest said that while it expects to meet all its covenants in the base case scenario, in a 'severe but plausible' downside scenario it could breach covenants in April.

"The group maintains good relationships and a regular dialogue with all its lenders and is confident that an amendment to its covenants would be secured if necessary, however, this is not guaranteed and therefore this represents a material uncertainty related to going concern," it said.

"In all scenarios, except where the interest cover covenant is breached and a covenant amendment is not agreed, the group forecasts adequate liquidity."

The company said trading conditions at the start of the 2026 financial year mirror the subdued conditions seen in the second half of last year, "reflecting ongoing consumer caution and the absence of demand side stimulus following the Budget".

However, it pointed out that since Boxing Day, forward indicators show early signs of improving activity levels. January sales rates have strengthened, Crest said, supported by improving customer engagement as interest rates ease gradually and affordability improves.

Chief executive Martyn Clark said: "2025 has been a year of transition and transformation for Crest Nicholson. Despite the ongoing market challenges, we have made meaningful progress against each of the key strategic priorities set out at our Capital Markets Day, repositioning the group to the mid-premium market segment.

"While the housing market remains subdued, we are starting to see some early signs of improvement. Interest rates are easing and inflation has moderated, which should gradually support affordability and consumer confidence. With these fundamentals improving, and with our deliberate and differentiated strategy, Crest Nicholson is well positioned to deliver a year of profitable growth and make progress towards our medium-term targets."