Canaccord Genuity lowers Antofagasta to 'hold'

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Canaccord Genuity downgraded copper miner Antofagasta from 'buy' to 'hold' on Wednesday but hiked their target price on the stock from 3,165p to 4,100p, stating they now see "more limited upside" than they had in 2025. Canaccord Genuity said it had now incorporated all 2025 and 2026 guidance into its model for Antofagasta, with its FY25 net debt assumptions being higher due to the guided $770m working cap outflow, while its FY26 net debt was higher mainly on the higher guided capex due to Antofagasta's Los Pelambres asset.

"Just last week ANTO hit a high of 4176p, pricing in most of our forecast value in the year ahead, before reversing sharply. We have increased our 2026 EBITDA forecast based on better gold production and higher copper pricing," said Canaccord Genuity. "However, this incremental value is partially offset by the higher net debt we now forecast next year."

The Canadian bank also rolled out its valuation to 2027, but even based on net asset value and enterprise value/underlying earnings multiples of 1.2x and 10x, respectively, at a 20% premium to the rest of the sector, it sees "more limited upside" this year.

"With just 6% potential upside to our revised target price, we downgrade Antofagasta to a 'hold' rating (from 'buy'). We think potential upside in ANTO is more limited in 2026 than it was in 2025, and that copper investors can now find better value in some of the smaller cap copper names," added Canaccord.

Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com