US pre-open: Futures little changed ahead of July CPI reading

(Sharecast News) - Wall Street futures were little changed ahead of the bell on Tuesday as traders patiently awaited the release of last month's consumer price index. As of 1220 BST, Dow Jones futures were up 0.03%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures had both indices opening just 0.01% higher.

The Dow closed 200.52 points lower on Monday, almost completely erasing gains recorded in the previous session.

Tuesday's primary focus will undoubtedly be on July's CPI reading at 1330 BST, with economists expecting to see headline month-on-month inflation tick up 0.2%, down from June's 0.3% rise, while the annual increase was pegged to come in at 2.8%. So-called core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was expected to climb 0.3% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year.

Traders will hope to gain some insight into just how the Federal Reserve will handle short-term interest rates, with the market currently pricing in a roughly 87% chance of a rate cut in September.

Tuesday's CPI reading also comes as investors mull over recent developments on the trade front, with Donald Trump extending a 90-day pause on higher levies on Chinese goods yet again.

Rostro's Joshua Mahony said: "Today's US CPI inflation release provides us with fresh insights over the direction of travel for US prices given the trade measures implemented by the president. Last month's 0.3% monthly CPI figure represented the highest in five months, with underlying metrics highlighting particular gains in tariff-related goods such as clothing and consumer electrics.

"Given the fact that many businesses would have stockpiled ahead of Trump's tariffs, there is likely a lag between implementation and the point of which those businesses start paying the new rate for imported goods. With that in mind, the possibility of a rebound in US inflation remains a significant risk for markets, calling into question the recent payrolls-led spike in rate cut expectations."

Elsewhere on the macro front, the National Federation of Independent Business's small business optimism index rose to 100.3 in July, up from 98.6 in June for the highest reading in five months. There was a notable improvement in overall business health, with the net percentage of owners expecting better business conditions rising to 36%, while 11% reported that inflation was the single biggest issue in operating their businesses.

Also in focus, Richmond Federal Reserve president Thomas Barkin and Kansas Fed head Jeffrey Schmid will deliver speeches later this morning, while the Federal Government's July budget statement will be released at 1900 BST.

Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com