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Thursday preview: ECB announcement, Halma results in focus

(Sharecast News) - Thursday will see the release of full-year results from safety equipment firm Halma and budget airline Wizz Air, along with quarterly results from Adobe in the US. As far as Halma is concerned, UBS said the FY27 guidance issued should be the key focus for investors, particularly regarding the premium growth assumption embedded for Photonics.

"While consensus for Environmental & Analysis has moved up since the trading update (c4ppt to c17%), we still view the risk-reward as positively skewed given the read-across from hyperscaler capex budgets in CY'26E," it said.

Regarding Wizz, AJ Bell analysts Russ Mould and Danni Hewson said management's views on the impact from the Middle East "have bounced around more than one of its aircraft buffeted by turbulence", with the latest assessment calling for at least a profit breakeven.

"A pivot back towards its core Central European markets and well-hedged fuel for the summer puts Wizz in a more comfortable position than some of its peers," they said. "An update on engine availability amid continuing GTF grounding issues and the state of the spare engine pool to support summer trading will be closely watched.

"The key to the share price reaction will be the 2027 outlook and management's confidence in the demand outlook against an increase in capacity."

Investors will also eye the latest policy announcement from the European Central Bank amid expectations of a 25 basis points rate hike. ING said that for markets, the key issue to watch is whether the ECB will provide any clue about its further reaction to potential Iran-war and energy-price scenarios.

"In its policy statement, the ECB will likely emphasise as usual that it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach," said chief economist Holger Schmieding.

"However, the likely upward revisions to the ECB's quarterly staff projections for inflation and the discussion of scenarios will probably convey the message that the ECB would follow up with more rate increases if headline and core inflation rise further.

"Put differently: if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, the ECB may tighten monetary policy again as early as its subsequent meeting on 23 July. Fortunately, this need not be the case. Amid on-off negotiations between Iran and the US, the price for Brent crude has receded from an average of $120 per barrel in April to $108 in May and $99 so far in June. If tensions ease and energy prices recede further on trend before the ECB meeting on 23 July, as we assume, the ECB should have no reason to raise rates again in July or September.

"By late July, the economic damage from the Iran war should be obvious enough to stay the ECB's hand even if inflation will likely remain elevated for a while. Despite a clear risk that the ECB may go beyond one hike, we thus expect the ECB to stay put for the remainder of 2026 and in 2027 after the almost universally expected 25bp move this Thursday."

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