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IEA lowers global oil supply forecasts for next two years

Thu 11 Dec 2025 12:36

(Sharecast News) - The International Energy Agency has trimmed its global oil supply growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 due to an expected pickup in demand and lower exports from sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela. Oil supplies will grow by 3m barrels a day in 2025 and by 2.4m in 2026, according to the IEA, down from earlier estimates of 3.1m and 2.5m, respectively.

Global supplies fell by 610k barrels of oil per day in November alone - down 1.5m b/d from an all-time high in September - with OPEC+ nations accounting for over three quarters of the total decrease due to weaker output in Russia and Venezuela.

"After weathering significant unplanned refinery outages in November, tightness in refined product markets has eased, but sanctions in 1Q26 will provide fresh challenges," the Paris-based organisation said.

"The stark contrast between surging crude supplies and unexpectedly tight product markets has pushed refinery margins back to levels last seen in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine."

Meanwhile, global oil demand is set to rise by 830kb/d over 2025 and by 860kb/d in 2026, with the latter up 90kb/d from earlier estimates.

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