Greggs posts rise in Q4 sales, expects flat profits this year

(Sharecast News) - Greggs posted a rise in fourth-quarter sales on Thursday but said it expects flat profits this year amid subdued consumer confidence. The bakery chain said Q4 total sales jumped 7.4% on the year, with like-for-like sales in company-managed shops up 2.9%.

Total sales for FY25 were £2.15bn, up 6.8% on 2024, with like-for-like sales in company-managed shops 2.4% higher.

Greggs said market conditions remain challenging but the company's outperformance has continued with year-on-year gains in market share. It also said that subdued consumer confidence continued to impact the food-to-go market, along with weather extremes earlier in the year.

Greggs expects consumer confidence to remain a headwind in the year ahead. This, along with the costs of introducing its new supply chain capacity will put some temporary pressure on margins.

"However, our competitive position remains strong and we continue to take market share in a challenging food-to-go market. Our store opening programme will continue to drive further strong sales growth," it said.

The retailer expects to deliver profits at a similar underlying level to 2025, with any year-on-year improvement contingent on a recovery in the consumer backdrop.

Chief executive Roisin Currie said: "We made good progress in 2025, in a challenging year where subdued consumer confidence impacted the food-to-go market. Against this backdrop, I'm pleased that Greggs outperformed the wider market and increased its market share of visits.

"We enter 2026 with a strong pipeline of new opportunities to make Greggs even more convenient for customers. This is underpinned by the investments we have been making in our supply chain capacity, which start to become operational this year. Our ongoing focus on efficiency allows us to deliver exceptional value to customers who are managing their budgets carefully."

At 0945 GMT, the shares were down 6.7% at 1,655p.

Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said: "Greggs' trading update is as lukewarm as one of its sausage rolls. Fourth quarter like-for-like sales growth of 2.9% is far from outstanding, and forward guidance lacks any sparkle.

"It expects no profit growth in 2026, which is a gloomy outlook for a business that's rapidly expanding across the country and one of Britain's biggest food-on-the-go names. Weak consumer confidence and extra costs linked to supply chain initiatives don't bode well for margins short-term.

"Despite this disappointing outlook, it's important to recognise that Greggs is a British success story. It just feels as if the business has grown too fast and that it would be better served taking stock of events, focusing more on improving store efficiency, simplifying the menu, and slowing down the pace of new store openings. Less is more, after all.

"Greggs is the most shorted stock on the UK market and those betting against the company have been cleaning up. The shares fell further on the latest news and bears might be happy to sit tight as there wasn't anything in its update to make them reappraise a negative stance.

"The flipside is that the lower the shares go, and the cheaper its valuation, the more likely that activist investors will dial up pressure on the business for change, or takeover interest appears."