Important information: The value of investments and the income from them, can go down as well as up, so you may get back less than you invest.

SELL on the rumour not the news. Last week was the best in more than a year for stock market investors despite rising US interest rates, Covid lockdowns in China and no let-up in Ukraine’s misery.

Investors prefer to know, even if the headlines are bad. It’s the uncertainty, we can’t take.

The Ukrainian round-trip

Stock markets move quickly to price in the news. The Stoxx 600 index that tracks European shares fell 10% between the invasion of Ukraine and March 7. In the past two weeks, shares have recouped all their losses. Even in Germany, worst placed of all thanks to its heavy dependence on Russian energy. There’s no doubt the economic hit will be severe - Goldman Sachs thinks growth will fall from 4% to 2.5% - but investors are looking through a glass half full at more EU cohesion and higher defence spending in the years ahead.

Fed starts, but will it finish?

The quarter point rise in US interest rates last week surprised no-one. And the Fed made it clear that it was the first instalment in a prolonged tightening cycle with maybe six rises in total this year. But others doubt it can deliver. Former Pimco ‘bond king’ Bill Gross reckons the Fed will stop tightening when it becomes clear that higher rates will stall the US economy and, in particular, its housing market. If that means higher inflation but lower yields, the biggest loser in that environment will be the bond market.

What to do with your fixed income?

If bonds are hit by the new stagflation, what’s the outlook for balanced portfolios? Simple equity/bond mixes may have had their day. But that’s OK. A diversified portfolio with growth and value shares, inflation-linked bonds, cash, commodities, gold and even some bitcoin looks like it could deliver an even smoother ride than the traditional 60:40 mix, on the basis of numbers from Fidelity’s US arm.

The end of the China Crisis?

All it took was some soothing words from vice premier Liu He to turn the tide in Shanghai and Shenzhen. The moves in both directions last week for Chinese shares were stomach-churning but maybe we’ve had the darkest hour in the Chinese equity market. Eased Covid restrictions in Hong Kong could point the way to the end of the discredited Zero Covid policy; market friendly stimulus looks like it’s on its way; and China is talking to the US about solving the stand-off over US-listed Chinese stocks.

The contrarian case for cheaper oil

Everyone accepts that the oil price will stay high for now. Well, not Citi’s commodities team. They think Brent will be at $60 by the end of the year on the back of: less demand than expected; Russian sanctions having less of an impact than feared on oil supply; a ramp up in Shale production in the US; and forgotten producers like Venezuela and even Iran coming back on stream.

Important information: Investors should note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon. Overseas investments will be affected by movements in currency exchange rates. Investments in emerging markets can be more volatile than other more developed markets. Select 50 is not a personal recommendation to buy or sell a fund. There is a risk that the issuers of bonds may not be able to repay the money they have borrowed or make interest payments. When interest rates rise, bonds may fall in value. Rising interest rates may cause the value of your investment to fall. This information is not a personal recommendation for any particular investment. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment you should speak to one of Fidelity’s advisers or an authorised financial adviser of your choice.

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