Thought Leadership

Investing in a world of secular stagnation

Low growth, low inflation, low interest rates. What explains the persistence of these conditions in developed economies?

Macro update: October 2015

A short roundup of the current outlook across the main economies and regions.

Are Global Investors Ready for Higher Returns in Japan?

Government-led initiatives and shareholder-friendly policies are boosting the allure of Japanese stocks

Excess capital likely to continue to keep real rates low

What determines the level of real interest rates critical to all aspects of investment and asset allocation?

The outlook for US equities and US interest rates

Investors are concerned about the impact of rise in US interest rates, yet rate rises are only being considered because the US economy is recovering.

Managing Fixed Income Is About More than Just Interest Rates

In anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) potential exit from more than six years of zero-interest-rate policy, some bond investors have braced for potential losses by reducing interest-rate risk.

The Three Rs of Global Markets: Recoupling, Reflation, Resilience

After a volatile January, global equity markets appear to have recoupled in a positive way by rallying in unison.

Smart Beta applications in Fixed Income

Most fixed income benchmarks are constructed on a debt weighted basis. Here we show that an equal risk contribution approach (ERC) is superior when applied to the global high yield market.

US equity outlook continues to be underpinned by income growth

Sustained dividend growth should continue to support US stock market performance, with the S&P 500 Index capable of exceeding 2,400 before the inauguration of the next US president..

Does the Number of Stocks in a Portfolio Influence Performance?

Many investors believe actively managed equity portfolios that hold a low number of stocks are more likely to beat a passive benchmark.

Macro update: January 2015

Global growth momentum has continued slowing over the past month, mainly driven by the energy-related components of these measures, as well as some US components coming off recent highs.

Winners and losers from the oil price slump

Arguably the most important economic development of 2014 was the slump in global oil prices in the second half of the year.

Investing in digital disruption

We are living in an age of rapid and highly disruptive digital innovation that is reshaping many industries.

Five Market Themes for 2015

Market participants and forecasters had their share of surprises and disappointments in 2014, and 2015 will be no different.

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