The Investment Clock approach generates growth and inflation readings based on past trends and the current momentum of lead indicators. These indicators are updated on a monthly basis to build an expectation of how the global economy may perform over the coming three to six months.

The growth reading sets the relative weighting of cyclical and defensive assets (North-South on the clock diagram). The inflation reading sets the weighting of financial assets versus real assets (East-West).

Investment clock

December 2016 - Cyclical strength but increasing fragility

2016 is drawing to a close with the strongest economic backdrop in a number of years.

November 2016 - Trumped

After Donald Trump’s victory in the US election, populism has claimed its second victory of 2016.

October 2016 - Positioning for rising inflation

Two unexpected developments have had a big impact on markets this year.

September 2016 - A more volatile autumn

August was a quiet month in terms of policy developments and both stocks and bonds traded in tight ranges.

July 2016 - Goldilocks

Global markets have shrugged off Brexit as a local issue.

June 2016 - Omnishambles

The UK has voted to leave the EU. David Cameron has resigned as Prime Minister.

ClockWise archive: