The macro-economic indicators continue to point to weak global growth and rising inflation – a combination known as “stagflation”. Greetham believes this explains the odd spectacle of commodities and bonds doing well in the first quarter of 2008 while equities slumped.
He comments: “The new quarter is starting off on a strong note for stocks but bear market rallies are often short-lived. I remain underweight equities and property with the overweight distributed across commodities, bonds and cash. Sector exposure is tilted away from financials.
“However, it can only be a matter of time before slower global growth leads to weaker commodity prices and a return to the reflationary phase of the economic cycle. At that point, I am likely to shift the underweight focus of my equity holdings to industrials.”
| Region | Equities | Gov bonds | Commodities | Interest rates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global | -9% | 10% | 10% | 3.06% |
| Eurozone | -9% | 11% | - | 4.00% |
| UK | -10% | 2% | - | 5.25% |
| US | -9% | 5% | - | 2.25% |
| Japan | -7% | 14% | - | 0.75% |
| Emerging Mkts | -10% | 1% | - |
Source: FTSE International, JP Morgan, DataStream and Dow Jones AIG Total returns as at 02.04.08. All returns in US dollars.
| Sectors | World | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Basic materials | -2% | -1% |
| Consumer goods | -6% | -7% |
| Industrials | -7% | -9% |
| Consumer Services | -7% | -16% |
| Utilities | -8% | -11% |
| Oil & gas | -9% | -14% |
| Healthcare | -9% | -13% |
| Financials | -11% | -7% |
| Technology | -13% | -16% |
| Telecommunications | -13% | -20% |
Source: FTSE World Indices total return in US dollars
The Fund Manager uses the Investment Clock model to determine an appropriate weighting in each asset class relative to the fund’s strategic benchmark. These assets are then allocated to other Fidelity portfolio managers who specialise within the various investment disciplines, with the exception of the exposure to commodities, which is achieved through investment in third-party contracts.
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